Wednesday, March 25, 2020

A Slippery Slope

In the past few days, some politicians have come out urging the public to consider returning to "normal" in a very short amount of time - counter to what health experts are telling us is necessary.
Tweet Tiffany Trump return to work
Get back to work by April 1st?
The idea is this: tanking our economy is worse than some people dying. Buoyed by President Trump's calls to get back to business as usual by Easter, the lieutenant governor of Texas basically said that older folks ought to take one for the team to save the economy for the children.
tweet Dan Patrick coronavirus
Bad economy worse than death?
There's quite a few problems with this interpretation, not the least of which is that it's encouraging a game of Russian roulette with your health. I mean you probably won't die if you contract the disease, right? Ignore the fact that folks who recover appear to have permanent lung damage, which would make them more susceptible to other illnesses in the future. Or the fact that we don't always know who has underlying conditions putting them at a higher risk of a fatal outcome. (Did you hear about the 21 year old Spanish soccer coach, the 36 year old Brooklyn school principal, the first person under 18 years old who died in LA and on and on?)

If we simply consider the healthcare system, you can see the fatal flaw (yes, pun intended) with the calls to live like we're not in the midst of a pandemic. There are only so many hospitals with so many health care professionals with so many supplies available at any given time. If we do not stop the exponential spread of the virus, these precious resources will be overwhelmed and consumed.

cartoon exponential growth flatten the curve
Source: Dr. Siouxsie Wiles
The healthcare system will fail and the death rate will climb. This is not just a thought experiment - we have evidence of this happening in Italy. We have evidence of it happening in the US too - if we look back at history to understand the 1918 flu pandemic.

So hopefully we can all agree - rushing to end social distancing prematurely will not get things back to "normal" like waving a magic wand. Believing it's a viable option is wishful thinking - highly dangerous wishful thinking. And with it the specter of eugenics begins to rear its ugly head once again. Let's not accept defeat already - we can minimize the loss of human life by listening to the folks on the frontline of this war. Stay home and be well everyone.

thank you workers

EDIT: A new interview with Dr. Bruce Ayland of the WHO just came to my attention - please read it.

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